When is an urn more than just an urn? When it's the 4th one.

Honduras today finds itself in the throws of political upheaval, and it all has to do with the fourth urn, more colloquially known as the fourth ballot box.

For the last few months trouble has been brewing in the Honduran government as President Manuel "Mel" Zelaya has advanced in his decision to include in the November elections a fourth ballot box that will determine whether Honduras will form an assembly to reform the constitution. This Sunday is the national referendum in which Hondurans will vote whether that fourth ballot box will be allowed.

So what is the big deal? It depends who you ask. The cuarta urna has its supporters and opposition, of course.

Those in favor of the cuarta urna say that the new constitution will provide the opportunity to rewrite the constitution to eliminate corruption.

Those against it believe that Manuel Zelaya simply wants to change the constitution so that he can run for a second term (presidents are allowed only one four-year term in Honduras). Not only that he wants a second term, but that he wants to install himself as dictator, a la Venezuelan Presdient Hugo Chavez, with whom Zelaya maintains a friendly relationship.

Everyone in the government -- the armed forces, the Congress (even Mel's own party), the attorney general, the Supreme Court -- is against Zelaya. The Supreme Court has ruled the move illegal and unconstitutional, but he's going through with it nonetheless. Rumors have been flying around for weeks now that there will be a military-led coups to toss Zelaya out of power before Sunday's referendum. Last night Zelaya sacked the head of the armed forces, and the rest of the military leaders resigned in solidarity, essentially leaving all of the military powers without a head.

It is hard to know exactly what to believe, partly because it is impossible to get reliable information. The media are all owned by the wealthiest people in the country who are decidedly against the cuarta urna and out of touch with the reality that most Hondurans live. Zelaya and his advisers, however, have provided scant information about what they actually want to change in the constitution, which smells fishy. It seems to me that if Zelaya did install himself as dictator and tried to run the country like Venezuela, he would run into major problems. For one, the country is essentially bankrupt and has no oil fields, as does Venezuela, to finance socialist reforms.

Today and tomorrow are important days for Honduras. No one knows how the situation will play out. No matter what, most Hondurans seem to think that no matter what happens the government will remain as corrupt as ever, looking out only for themselves and their own interests. It's a sad state of affairs, this hopelessness. With so much poverty, poor education, crumbling infrastructure, and now a financial crisis that is swelling the already double-digit unemployment rate, the future for this country looks dim. The fourth ballot box seems like just another dead end, not a light at the end of the tunnel.

Update: Here is an Associated Press article about the situation.

Another article from the Council on Hemispheric Affairs about the cuarta urna. Presents both sides fairly well.